(Part of) the government of Britain wants to treble Chinese visitor numbers by 2015. I am asking if they know how, and if they know why?

This week, Culture Secretary Jeremy Hunt rode the waves of a very successful Olympic Games hosting experience in London with a major announcement about marketing the UK to the rest of the world and helping the tourism industry. He specifically singled out the Chinese market for a targeted 3.3 times increase in visitors over 2011 numbers by the year 2015 (from 150,000 to 500,000). That is an amazingly ambitious target of a 50% increase each year until 2015! Wow, this must mean we have a 3 year strategy already in place right? Emm, not exactly:

“Key to the strategy is an £8m marketing campaign focused on China, in the hope this will triple the number of visitors from the country to 500,000.

The Government claims this has the potential to generate more than £500m in extra tourist spending and create some 14,000 new jobs.”

There are many questions that arise out of this statement and also many related variables that have not been addressed. Some of them I’ve listed here but won’t be addressing in this post.

• Why the focus on visitor numbers?
• How much do the Chinese spend in Britain compare to other nationalities, and compared to what they spend elsewhere?
• How does Britain fare against other destinations?

Immediately following the press conference, I was interviewed on Sky News and asked how should British companies prepare for these new visitors. With just 3 minutes of air time, I could not really give any in-depth answers, just very generic concepts. But belonging to that group of weary old-China hands, I am weary of another media hype wave, similar to what we have seen in 2005 after Britain signed the bilateral tourism agreement (ADS) with China and predicted to have 200,000 Chinese tourists by 2010 (the real number was about half). In 2007, Britain received almost 150,000 Chinese, a huge increase over the 100,000 of 2005 when the bilateral tourism agreement was signed. But a combination of factors led to a big drop in the numbers.

I don’t think the global economic recession was to blame because throughout the last 4 years, outbound tourism from China continued to grow steadily (the growth slowed in 2009 but then adjusted back to its trend). Rather, the reasons for the drop in visitors were, all but one, home made: A slashing of VisitBritain funding, a harsh new visa application regime, the London riots and intensifying global competition for Chinese tourists.

Are the target numbers realistic this time around? 

Good question! That depends on what stands behind the commitment to grow the numbers (another question is why focus on total numbers and not on how much they spend, since smaller numbers of wealthy visitors may be more beneficial to Britain overall – I will address this in another article). £8 billion in marketing for China is a good start but we should also ask where that money is going to be spent and who we are trying to attract in China. Earlier this year, Australia committed A$30 million to marketing in China over 3 years. The USA has created Brand USA to launch agressive marketing in China. From 2008 until this year, USA doubled visitors from China while Britain remained flat.

This goal means a 50% increase in arrivals from Mainland China every year until 2015. That is much higher than the projected annual increase in total Chinese outbound travel. It means competing head-on with major, established tourist destinations (for Chinese) like France, Australia, USA and presenting a compelling, fresh reason for Chinese to not only visit once, but keep returning and seeing more of Britain outside zone 2. If the government had announced a 5 years marketing plan and associated budget, I would have cheered wildly. I am afraid that £8 million alone with no commitment to what comes next, just won’t cut it.

Why the focus on China?

Yes China’s numbers are impressive and, yes, it is becoming a global superpower in economics and tourism. But when we talk about visitor numbers to Europe, it is still behind many other ‘emerging’ markets that would be easier to attract to Britain for more than one visit. The most obvious is Russia, followed by India and Brazil. The real size of the Chinese long haul market is only about 10 million at present. The other BRIC nations produce more viable tourists than this, so let’s not lose sight.(China is, I believe, the top prize ultimately but it will take more time and a long term commitment to realise).

Last year I wrote an article about media hype and what it can mean to destinations and companies in the context of Chinese tourism to America which may be worth re-reading.

The two-headed beast

It is regrettable that the government of Great Britain is unable to speak with a unified voice about such matters. Not two days after the announcement by Mr. Hunt, a leaked letter from Home Office Secretary Theresa May’s secretary to the Prime Minister’s office made it clear that she opposes any changes to the Visa regime for Chinese visitors on the groups of security and illegal immigration threat. This conflict is illustrated so perfectly in a recent campaign by VisitBritain in Asia. In the same magazine where VB advertised its Welcome to Britain message, the UK Immigration service took out an ad warning people not to come to the UK illegally. The tone and timing of that message was totally at odds with idea of Britain as a welcoming country.

What kind of message do we think this public duel conveys to the Chinese travel agents and potential visitors?

So, in short, let’s set realistic goals, make a long term commitment to meeting them and not neglect other lucrative markets. Let’s have a proper discussion on the risks and rewards involved in opening our doors to more visitors from Asia, Russia and South America and find creative solutions that will enable the tourist industry here say proudly：We welcome you to Britain, Ying Guo Huan Ying Nin! 英国欢迎您